As the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 heads into its final stretch, the battle for a spot in the final is intensifying. With only two teams able to qualify, let’s break down the qualification scenarios for the top contenders and explore what each team needs to do to secure a place in next year’s final.

1. India – Leading the Charge

India currently sits at the top of the WTC standings with a strong percentage of 74.24%, following dominant performances in their recent series. With eight matches left in the cycle, India looks well-positioned to reach their third consecutive WTC final. They will play three home Tests against New Zealand and five away Tests against Australia.

What India Needs: India needs at least three more wins to comfortably cross the 60% qualification threshold. Their excellent home record suggests they could sweep New Zealand, giving them a near-guaranteed spot in the final.

Chances of Qualification: Very high (~90%).

2. Australia – Strong Contender

Australia is second on the table with 62.5%, having secured crucial wins in their recent series. With seven matches left (five at home against India and two away in Sri Lanka), they are in a strong position to qualify.

What Australia Needs: To finish above the 60% mark, Australia needs at least four wins from their remaining matches. The upcoming series against India could make or break their qualification hopes, but given their recent home form, they are favorites to secure the necessary wins.

Chances of Qualification: High (~70%).

3. Sri Lanka – A Tough Road Ahead

Sri Lanka currently sits in third place with 55.56%, still within striking distance of the final. With four remaining Tests (two away in South Africa and two at home against Australia), they have a challenging but not impossible path to the final.

What Sri Lanka Needs: To stay in the hunt, Sri Lanka needs at least three wins, particularly in their home series. If they can pull off some surprises against South Africa and Australia, they could push their percentage past the required 60%.

Chances of Qualification: Moderate (~35%).

4. New Zealand – The Dark Horses

New Zealand has had an up-and-down WTC cycle, currently sitting at 50%. The inaugural WTC winners have eight matches left: two away against Sri Lanka, three away against India, and three at home against England.

What New Zealand Needs: To qualify, New Zealand must win five of these matches, which would boost their percentage. They’ll need a big performance against India and England to stay in contention.

Chances of Qualification: Moderate (~30%).

5. England – Relying on Others

England, with a 42.19% win rate, faces an uphill battle. They have six away Tests remaining – three in Pakistan and three in New Zealand.

What England Needs: Even if England wins all six remaining games, they will finish with only 57.95%, meaning they need both India and Australia to drop points for a realistic shot at the final.

Chances of Qualification: Slim (~10%).

6. South Africa – Outside Chance

South Africa is struggling with just 38.89%. They have six matches remaining, including two against Bangladesh, two against Sri Lanka, and two against Pakistan.

What South Africa Needs: South Africa must win at least five out of six to cross the 60% mark. While mathematically possible, it’s a tall order given their recent performances.

Chances of Qualification: Low (~25%).

7. Bangladesh – A Long Shot

Bangladesh, sitting at 34.38%, needs a near-miracle to qualify. They have six games left but will likely need to win five of them to have any chance of reaching the final.

Chances of Qualification: Very slim (~5%).


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Final Thoughts

As we approach the final leg of the WTC 2023-25 cycle, India and Australia remain the frontrunners, with Sri Lanka and New Zealand still in the mix. The upcoming series, particularly India’s tour of Australia, could be decisive. Cricket fans are in for a thrilling finish as teams vie for their spot in the coveted WTC final.

Stay tuned for more updates on the World Test Championship as the drama unfolds on the field!